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Speculating the iPhone 16 launch date
It’s too early to tell for sure when Apple will announce the iPhone 16, but Apple does follow certain patterns so there’s a strong candidate for that day. Here’s what we think.
Apple will unveil the iPhone 16 range in an online event on Tuesday, September 10, 2024. That’s what the best estimate is, based on the last ten years of iPhone launches.
Curiously, it’s also the date that some AI services will say if you ask when the next Apple launch is likely to be. But, typically, only some AI tools say that date while others are insistent on September 6th or 12th.
Human intelligence says that Apple can launch whenever it likes, but in practice there are enormous logistical issues around releasing millions of iPhones. Apple knows how to do it, Apple has done it many times — and so it’s likely to follow the same working pattern again.
That working pattern, over the last ten releases since 2013 and the iPhone 5s, is to favor a Tuesday. Out of the ten years from 2013 to 2023, six iPhone launches were on a Tuesday.
The rest of the time, they were on a Wednesday. That’s when we were introduced to the iPhone 7 range in 2016, the iPhone XS in 2018, the iPhone 13 in 2021 and the iPhone 14 in 2022.
The launch will be in the first half of September
With one major exception, each of those iPhones was launched in the first half of September. The exception was the iPhone 12 range, which because of COVID delays, was launched on October 13.
You have to go back to 2011 to find another October iPhone launch date, that time with the iPhone 4s. Apple was really still seeking out the optimum time then and earlier iPhones actually came out in June.
With September launches, the latest date was in 2021 when September 14 that year saw the iPhone 13 announced.
So unless Apple throws a curve ball — or is forced to as it was over COVID — you can bet that the iPhone 16 launch will be in the first half of September. It will most likely be on a Tuesday, too.
Which means the possible dates for 2024, are September 3, or September 10. The former is very unlikely because it’s the day after Labor Day.
Back when the events were done live, you could rule out such a date because Apple liked to rehearse up to day. With pre-recorded, pre-produced video launches, there shouldn’t be quite the same issue.
However, Apple is exceptional at the logistics of a launch in every sense. Launching in early September means being able to ship millions of devices and then have demand pick back up again for the holiday season.
It also means maximizing the attention that the launch gets. Running the event the morning after Labor Day weekend would get the same coverage as ever in the technology press, but Apple wants consumers.
If it’s correct that the iPhone 16 range will be launched on Tuesday, September 10, 2024, then you can presume that pre-orders will start that Friday. It’s therefore most likely that you’ll actually have a new iPhone from the following Friday, September 20, 2024.